A Benchmark of Statistical Models for Forecasting Monthly Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) for the Region of Ouarzazate Morocco

Ismail BELHAJ, Omkaltoume El FATNI

Abstract


The forecasting of monthly average Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) is explored.  A benchmark of statistical forecasting models is used to select the best statistical forecasting model. Seventeen models are evaluated and compared, namely Trend models, Box Jenkins models and Exponential Smoothing models.  The satellite data used are of the period extended from 1994 to 2012 for the region of Ouarzazate in Morocco. The daytime period is from 07h30 till 17h30.The design region of the models is from 1994 to 2009 divided into an estimation period and a validation period.  Data from 2010 to 2012 are used as forecasting years.  Several error metrics are used for performance evaluation and comparison. The results indicate that a seasonal ARIMA model outperforms the other statistical models with a good forecasting accuracy. 


Keywords


Forecasting; Time Series; Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI); Smoothing; Solar radiation; Concentrated Solar Power (CSP); Ouarzazate

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DOI (PDF): https://doi.org/10.20508/ijrer.v9i1.8709.g7568

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